Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 3.836869e-02 0.044726 0.051294 0.058550 0.066307 0.074320 0.083193
2025-12-07 2.974647e-02 0.039050 0.049205 0.060946 0.074000 0.087940 0.103829
2025-12-14 2.426287e-02 0.035422 0.048183 0.063473 0.080966 0.100078 0.122283
2025-12-21 1.951605e-02 0.031721 0.046321 0.064381 0.085551 0.109113 0.136902
2025-12-28 1.778275e-02 0.031316 0.048037 0.069170 0.094333 0.122668 0.156393
2026-01-04 1.362933e-02 0.027174 0.044727 0.067589 0.095388 0.127168 0.165435
2026-01-11 1.131590e-02 0.025152 0.043811 0.068690 0.099421 0.134941 0.178068
2026-01-18 9.130489e-03 0.022960 0.042430 0.069018 0.102370 0.141330 0.189003
2026-01-25 7.424327e-03 0.021207 0.041447 0.069700 0.105634 0.147995 0.200180
2026-02-01 5.816638e-03 0.019310 0.040075 0.069738 0.107993 0.153504 0.209935
2026-02-08 3.857679e-03 0.016302 0.036826 0.067084 0.106827 0.154664 0.214470
2026-02-15 2.647932e-03 0.014347 0.034927 0.066091 0.107641 0.158119 0.221638
2026-02-22 2.001339e-03 0.013468 0.034692 0.067471 0.111642 0.165654 0.233921
2026-03-01 1.490108e-03 0.012732 0.034627 0.069076 0.115948 0.173600 0.246758
2026-03-08 1.176651e-03 0.012409 0.035198 0.071560 0.121392 0.182947 0.261283
2026-03-15 7.632978e-04 0.011516 0.034717 0.072481 0.124752 0.189698 0.272675
2026-03-22 7.918952e-04 0.012255 0.037089 0.077559 0.133612 0.203282 0.292314
2026-03-29 3.168946e-04 0.010493 0.034900 0.075878 0.133457 0.205618 0.298342
2026-04-05 1.545392e-04 0.009858 0.034671 0.077046 0.137066 0.212629 0.310011
2026-04-12 3.704295e-05 0.009000 0.033931 0.077394 0.139539 0.218190 0.319901
2026-04-19 5.839371e-07 0.008325 0.033466 0.078119 0.142493 0.224338 0.330492
2026-04-26 NaN 0.007496 0.032594 0.078159 0.144477 0.229233 0.339531
2026-05-03 NaN 0.005957 0.029983 0.075341 0.142441 0.228948 0.342148